Risk On!  March continued the one-month-on, one-month off pattern seen so far in this young year, with nearly stocks and bonds bouncing back from Feb losses with March gains. The big story was managed futures with a big down month driven by the sharp rise in bond prices (lower rates) in March around the Silicon Valley Bank debacle and mini-banking crisis that ensued.  Trend followers had mostly been short bonds thanks to the months-long trend in rates moving higher, and were stopped out on a rally which was among the largest two-day moves in US treasury bond history. We’ll see if April continues the pattern with stocks/bonds down?

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources: Managed Futures = SocGen CTA Index,
Cash = US T-Bill 13 week coupon equivalent annual rate/12, with YTD the sum of each month’s value,
Bonds = Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA:BND),
Hedge Funds = IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (NYSEARCA:QAI)
Commodities = iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG);
Real Estate = iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR);
World Stocks = iShares MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. ETF (NASDAQ:ACWX);
US Stocks = SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY)

All ETF performance data from Y Charts