That was fast…. After a sharp commodity sell off mid November from annual highs, last week saw several markets push back above their early November high points. Palladium started the ball rolling on Thursday (putting in a high 25% above its low just 12 trading days ago), followed by Silver, Gold, Crude Oil, Heating Oil, RBOB Gas, and Cocoa Friday and today…

The question is whether other commodities will come along for the ride, with the entire grain complex, Sugar, Coffee, and Cotton still below their Nov. highs; and if they do – whether the so called commodity currencies (Aussie & Canadian) will resume their rallies above par with the US Dollar.

While nearly all managed futures programs were cheering commodities and currencies higher about a month ago, the sharp move lower did stop some programs out and take others short. So we’re not seeing a complete recoup of Nov. losses for the Newedge CTA Index (up about 1% through Friday for December). Those programs with the longest trade duration and widest stops are the ones still involved on the long side and likely to do best should grains and currencies follow suit in pushing to new 2010 highs (Accela, Covenant, Hoffman), while those with shorter durations and counter-trend models are likely struggling right now with the whipsaw move (Dominion, Emil van Essen, FCI).