We’ve been watching stock indices, energies, and metals for a clue as to whether the lows made on Friday and Monday will hold, but a different market was the first to break through those levels and put in fresh 2011 lows – Soybeans (and Soybean Meal).

That is quite a down trend Soybeans have been on, and it looks a lot like the charts of most other ‘risk on’ assets, which tells us that most traditional trend following type managed futures programs are short or about to get short these markets. Given that, managed futures as a whole are likely hopeful other markets will follow the Soybean lead and break through their lows from a few days ago and continue the down trend. As we have pointed out here, we believe that managed futures’ best chance of profits this year will be from an extended down move in commodities.