It’s been hot this year – and we’re not the only ones experiencing it, considering that the US is on track for the hottest year ever recorded. Seeing people wearing shorts in Chicago during December has been strange, to say the least.

Unfortunately, the temperature outside has been very different from the climate for managed futures. Many CTAs have been cold for much of 2012, with the Newedge CTA index down -3.13% YTD through the end of November.

With just two weeks to go before the end of the year, however, it appears as though we may be getting a last-minute heat wave… for managed futures, that is. After searching all year for the right trading environment, several programs are hitting their stride in the closing weeks of 2012.

For example, Briarwood Capital Management has had a fantastic first half of the month, up +4.62%  so far. They’ve hit profitable positions in multiple sectors over the last few weeks: short grains, short fixed income, short energy, and long foreign currencies. They were up +0.39% heading into December with an intra-year drawdown of -3.63%. They aren’t the only ones having a better month – the Newedge CTA Index is up 0.76% so far in December, though still down -2.33% for the year. (Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.)

If this streak ended up reversing and erasing this month’s gains it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen that happen this year. The managed futures game plan is to endure small, frequent losses during the “colder” months, waiting for the temperature to get just right… and then producing outsized gains. This could be the hot streak we’ve been waiting for, but if this turns out to be just another false spring… well, we’ll keep waiting. We know the weather will change eventually.