We’ve come a long way in the last four years. As of this month, the Dow has closed above its all-time high, and the S&P 500 is just a few points away from doing the same after touching its highest intra-day level since 2007. The deep pit into which the stock market fell during the 2008 financial crisis is now officially in the rear-view mirror. And now that we’ve marked another year in the recovery, we can revisit our tradition from the last few years of examining how various futures markets have fared over the same period. What stands out:

• All hail king palladium – the top-performing commodity for the 1, 2, 3, and 4-year periods following the ’09 stock low. The “other, other white metal” fell especially hard in the recession and has bounced back impressively. But palladium futures are still 27% below the nominal peak of $1082.80 reached in 2001.
• Gold standard not so shiny – we could solve the world’s energy crisis if we could only harness all the wind created when gold bugs pine over their favorite shiny metal. Snark aside, we’re so used to seeing articles that tout gold as a wonderful investment opportunity that they hardly even faze us anymore. But with all the hoopla, you’d think gold would at least have outperformed its close cousin silver, or even copper! But, you’d be mistaken.
• Natural gas and the long climb – natural gas reversed the trend of “historic decline” last year, but remains just one of three markets which has seen losses since 2009, leaving it more than 70% below its 2008 peak despite the up trend the last year.
• Bonds still up – after posting negative returns in the 3 years following the bottom, 10 and 30-year US bonds have both posted positive returns since… at the same time as rising stock prices, and despite the last few months of declining bond prices. Just chalk it up as another surprise in our long wait for the end of the bond bull.
• US Dollar – when you take a step back and consider these market moves, it seems quite clear that the goal over the last 4 years has been to depress the US Dollar and inflate everything else. How long can that continue?

(Disclaimer – Results represent change in price from Mar. 9, 2009 front month contract price through Mar. 8, 2013 front month contract price. These prices do not account for contract rolls and are not intended to represent investment gain or loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.)