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Election Day Risk On Rally

Americans are lining up at their polling stations to cast their vote, and in our world, that means that speculation about the link between markets and election is in high gear. Pundits on both sides have their own ideas about which candidate would be better for the economy, but the worst-case scenario is obvious: an indecisive outcome, one that leads to recounts and lawsuits and endless bickering and wrangling. Such a result would bring the electoral process to a screeching halt and raise the level of partisan rancor – all while we move closer to the fiscal cliff at the end of the year.

Such an outcome would surely be a toxic combination for the markets, but famed election-prognositicator Nate Silver is increasingly discounting that outcome – he’s giving Obama a better than 90% chance to win reelection. So what are the markets are expecting? While voters cast their ballots for red or blue, our screens have turned a bright shade of neon green:

(Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Chart courtesy of Finviz.com.)

It appears that the nightmare scenario isn’t being treated as a serious possibility at the moment. Whether or not that proves true… well, we only have a few more hours until we find out.