It has been a truly amazing start to 2012 in the stock market. Exhibit A? The Nasdaq, which has taken on the 45 degree up angle chart pattern more typically seen in a curve fit hypothetical track record than in an actual stock market.

Some stats for you to mull over:  The Nasdaq has been up in 19 out of 25 days (76% of time) year to date. The average daily move over that time has been +0.46%, for a gain so far this year of +11.47%.  That’s average annualized performance of +114.75%.

At this rate, the Nasdaq would be at 10,000 at about this time next year. Impressive, right?

Now, if your contrarian bells are going off as you read this, pat yourself on the back.  As the old saying goes, trees don’t grow to the sky.  Compare this rally’s average daily move of 0.46% and annualized performance of 114% to those same metrics for the Nasdaq over the previous 10 years (0.013% average daily move, 3.33% annualized return) and you can see that we’re in rare territory here, and, in our opinion, poised for an old-fashioned reversion to the mean.  Of course, there’s another saying worth remembering if you’e looking to fade this move- one that many learned the hard way last year- about solvency and market sanity.

Adages abound in the world of finance… how very fitting that, 41 years to the date after the NASDAQ first started trading, they’re all convening here.