Everyone’s talking about Milk as 2011’s top performing commodity, but we’re more interested in markets that managed futures professionals actually trade, like Bonds, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Cotton. Per our favorite quote site, Finviz.com, we find the following 2011 stats for commodity markets. [Please note – finviz does some weird things around contract rolls, which can make their percentage gains over longer periods different than what would be found using a continuous contract or the cash/spot market, nonetheless, we feel it is representative of each market’s 2011 movements].

The highlights:

• 40% (16 of 40) of markets up for the year (compared to 85% in 2010)
• 57% of markets down for the year (compared to 15% in 2010)
• 3 markets down more than -30% (Cocoa, Cotton, Natural Gas)
• 12 markets down more than -15%
• Only 3 markets up more than 15% (Heating Oil, 30 Year Bonds, Feeder Cattle), compared to 4 markets with gains over 75% in 2010
• 3 markets within 3% of their 2011 highs (US Dollar, 30 Year Bonds, 10 Year Notes, Feeder Cattle)
• 2 markets withing 3% of their 2011 lows (Natural Gas, Platinum)
• Cotton, after posting the second highest gains in the field last year, fell to the bottom of the heap with losses of -36%.

What will 2012 bring?  That is the million dollar question, to be sure. Will this finally be the year Natural Gas breaks out of its slump? Will Cotton and Cocoa bounce back? Can US Bonds continue to put in positive years?  Will Gold break its multi-year win streak ?

Luckily, managed futures investors don’t need to know the answers to those questions before hand in order to have a successful 2012. The managers don’t even need to know the answers, they just need to be able to identify and capture any such moves when they happen (no small task).