With Silver down 29.703% from its high, Crude down 12.54%% from its high, and markets like Cattle, Sugar, and Cotton at multi-month lows – the press has been calling it the end.

But it seemed just a little too easy to us. Now, don’t get us wrong, we’re all for cheaper prices at the pump, a stay of execution for the US economy, and the Fed not having to raise rates to fight inflation. And we still believe any substantial gains for managed futures this year will come from commodities selling off.

But the contrarian in us couldn’t help but feel that with everyone calling the end of the commodity rally based on the last few week’s price action, the likely move in prices from here wouldn’t be down, but instead would be back up. That whole theory about the markets doing what will cause the most pain to the most people. Looking at prices today, it seems like those instincts may have been correct… at least for now.

How it all plays out is anyone’s guess, and managed futures as a whole are a lot less ‘long’ than they were two months ago, so a return to higher prices won’t result in big, April like numbers. Likely, we’re in for some consolidation and sideways action before commodities decide which way to take things from here.